SEATTLE — Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation analyzed infection rates in the US and for Washington State to project what might happen with the virus in the coming months.
The current projection is more than 538,000 people nationwide will die from COVID by April 1 if we continue on our current path. With a rapid vaccine rollout, the number of deaths drops to 527,000.
According to their data, the biggest impact could be made if there was widespread mask usage. The projection shows the number of deaths would drop to 472,000 if everyone would wear masks.
The numbers for the state of Washington are similar coming in at 6,600 projected deaths by the spring and dropping to 5,400 if everyone wears masks.
“For four months, we've been pointing out that if we can get everybody to wear a mask, or even 95% of people to wear a mask, we can put the brakes on transmission,” Dr. Chris Murray said. “Between now and about April, if everyone listened to President-Elect Biden, we could save almost 70,000 lives."
The researchers said the development of vaccines should help but it would take a while to see a significant impact.
“We don't think that vaccination will do much about this winter surge, we'll start to see a big effect of vaccination, you know, after April,” Dr. Murray said.
He said the vaccine should help people get back to “normal” sooner
“It's not the tool that's going to avoid the deaths in January and in February,” he said.