SEATTLE — Across the U.S. the pandemic brought the largest single-year drop in school enrollment since World War II and in Seattle, data shows that public schools will continue to see their numbers fall in coming years.
In the 2019-2020 school year there were 53,630 students. The 2020-2021 school year saw 52,381 students, that’s 1,200 less than the previous year.
Predictions for the next several years show this drop as a trend.
Seattle Public Schools (SPS) enrollment projections:
- 2022-23: 49,550
- 2023-24: 48,498
- 2024-25: 47,813
- 2025-26: 46,910
According to data from the district's budget meeting the enrollment rate is predicted to drop by several hundred to about a thousand each year until 2026.
Seattle Public Schools' enrollment drop can be attributed to families moving away. Also, nationwide there’s a declining birthrate.
"Money from the state to the schools is based on enrollment numbers, and there's been a decline," explained Cherylynne Crowther, president of the Seattle Special Education PTSA.
Funding is based on enrollment. When there are fewer students, less money from the state is allocated to the district.
That is bad news for parents, like Crowther, who feel the district is already underfunded.
Crowther's son Max was born with physical and intellectual disabilities.
"He needs specially designed instruction, modified curriculum, those types of things. But we're also talking about students who have dyslexia, who have ADHD, who have anxiety, who have autism," Crowther said.
Seattle Public Schools sent this statement to KING 5:
"At its regular school board meeting on Wednesday, July 6, 2022, the Board of Directors of Seattle Public Schools voted to approve a $1.6 billion budget for the 2022-23 school year."
This budget aligns with SPS priorities to fully meet the academic and social-emotional needs of students, particularly those furthest away from educational justice. The budget also reflects the district’s commitment to fiscal responsibility within the context of declining enrollment.
The enrollment decline was anticipated because of community-wide demographic shifts, but the unexpected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic likely contributed to a sharper decrease than planned by the district.
However, it is important to note that shifts in enrollment do occur on an annual basis and the district routinely strategizes to prioritize providing the best possible education for students. In general, decreases in funding may necessitate shifting staff in some schools.
Part of SPS’s solution is to shift staff around.
Crowther said special education is already understaffed and under-resourced and shifting staff causes extra stress on a system that's already near a breaking point, especially after the challenges COVID-19 brought to education.
"Education for students with disabilities was never done right,” Crowther said, "We really need inclusion in every school, and we need the support, we need the funding. The state needs to provide the funding to make sure that students like my son, and students like you, they know how to be in the classroom, and everybody does better."
While some parents who have the resources chose to move their children to private schools or chose to homeschool, Crowther said that is not always an option for children is disabilities.
“It's very challenging to find alternatives to public school for special education. There aren't necessarily programs that are put together in private schools or in or homeschooling,” Crowther said.
Education for children with special needs is federally protected under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA).
But Crowther said the burden is still on parents to make sure their child’s education is meeting their individual needs.
“So, what happens is when they're out of legal compliance? Parents have to take some sort of an action, or kids are not getting the education that they are legally entitled to,” Crowther said.
Crowther acknowledges the community needs to do more to support education.
“Every single student, every single student in Seattle Public Schools is the responsibility of our community. It's not problem-solving to cut budgets in education. That is kind of such a core component. Education is where you grow, and you and you build resilience and you create community, and we're not there,” Crowther said.
Crowther said she supports changes in legislation to make sure education budgets are protected.
“At a community level, at a state level, at a federal level, we need to recognize that supporting education is one of the most critical actions we can take as citizens and as voters,” Crowther explained, “Change the funding, get the money, stop looking at enrollment numbers. What do we need to change in order to be able to actually do right with school and education for kids with special education needs, students with disabilities, all the kids.”
KING 5 asked Seattle Public Schools for an on-camera interview for this story and was told it may provide one once official student enrollment rates are released for the 2022-2023 school year.