KING COUNTY, Wash. — An analysis of King County data suggests schools could reopen as long as the proper safety measures were in place to reduce the spread of coronavirus.
Though basic testing and isolation alone would not be enough, the researchers, including a team from Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, suggest widespread testing, contact tracing, and case isolation would allow "relaxation of physical distancing, as well as opening of schools, without a surge in local cases and deaths."
The study, which was not peer reviewed as of Aug. 18, finds that safely resuming economic and educational activities while avoiding a resurgence in coronavirus cases will require "precise tuning" physical interactions and be contingent upon improved testing and tracing.
The analysis found reopening schools is likely to rapidly increase the death count to more than 15 per day if the only safety measures in place are diagnosis and isolation of symptomatic cases. School opening "unfortunately tips the balance of transmission and causes death rates to increase dramatically," the paper reads.
Many school districts have opted to continue remote learning in the fall, with alternative models that would ease students back into the classroom – at least part time.
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Earlier this month, the state released its recommendations for reopening schools.
Most districts are in communities at high or moderate risk of coronavirus transmission, Gov. Jay Inslee said. High risk communities are those with more than 75 cases per 100,000 residents; moderate risk communities see between 25 and 75 cases per 100,000 residents.
Students throughout Washington state might be learning online or in-person according to the level of COVID activity in their communities and the risk associated with the spread.
"If every school district brought all students back for in-person instruction today, I think we would see a meaningful and real dangerous increase in COVID activity," Inslee said.
Inslee announced the general guidelines at a press conference on Wednesday but it will be up to local districts and local health officials to decide how students will learn.
Though the state announced guidelines, they are recommendations and not requirements, and local school and health officials will make the decision.
State officials said the main recommendation is to move to a mostly online or remote learning mode if COVID-19 infection rates are high in a given area.
According to the state’s recommendations, 25 counties are in the high-risk category (including King, Snohomish, Pierce, Spokane and Yakima); nine in the moderate-risk category (including Clark and Whatcom); and five in the low-risk category (Asotin, Garfield, Jefferson, San Juan and Wahkiakum).