SEATTLE — Officials say a new report shows social distancing measures in King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties are working — but restrictions will need to remain in place to prevent a resurgence in infections.
Bellevue’s Institute for Disease Modeling (IMD) developed the report. It shows social distancing is more successful than expected in slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus, according to a release from the state joint information center.
“This is very encouraging, and we should start thinking about the next steps to transition away, but we should be clear we’re nowhere close,” said Seattle and King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin.
Duchin and other health officials acknowledged the hardships of social distancing — job loss, isolation, canceled events.
“We know the sacrifices and uncertainty families, businesses, schools and communities across Washington have faced,” said Dr. Kathy Lofy, Washington state health officer. “This new report confirms that working together through this crisis with unwavering commitment is slowing this serious disease. Our collective efforts are working, but we can’t let up our guard.”
What the data show is that the rate of infection has been dropping. Researchers believe in King County, the number of new infections each individual coronavirus case will produce has dropped to around one, and possibly less than that. That's an important milestone in controlling the disease’s spread. They believe that rate was around 2.7 back in February.
They note similar trends in Pierce and Snohomish County. However, in all locations, there is uncertainty due to low testing rates in the general population.
KING 5 asked Duchin if the data indicate any rough timeline on when social distancing measures could be relaxed.
“I would say it gives us some confidence to say not within the next month most likely,” Duchin said. “But it’s hard to predict beyond that because there still is a certain amount of caution we’re using given the limited amount of testing.”
While that is a glimmer of hope, it doesn't ease the worries of business owners whose incomes have plummeted.
Kyle and Amanda Gourlie own the Vet Chef food truck, which has been virtually shut down since social distancing began. The Bothell-based company initially hoped to keep paying employees but couldn't continue. They also tried to run a pre-order service, but said traffic was too low for it to be profitable.
“We were lucky to be one of the Amazon small business grant recipients, which allowed us to get through March, but we're looking at how do we move forward with this extension?” Amanda Gourlie said.
Without a timeline on when business could resume, their future is uncertain.
“It’s a horrible situation, and nothing changes,” Kyle Gourlie said. “It sucks and we want everyone to survive this and we're not."
“The biggest thing is we’re just trying to stay positive and find the light at the end of the tunnel,” Amanda Gourlie said.