President Donald Trump did not make an appearance in Washington state this election cycle, an indication that the final result here is not in doubt.
It’s also a hint of Trump's strong unpopularity in Washington, which may have an impact on other key races around the state.
“There is always an impact down-ballot,” said KING 5 political analyst Ron Sims, a former King County Executive as well as deputy director in the Obama administration.
“The congressional races are really going to be really fun to watch, because they're going to be a great barometer as to the depth of disdain or the ability of the president to be a benefit to the Republicans.”
Sims points to the 8th Congressional District, where Democratic incumbent Kim Schrier is seeking another term, and facing Republican Jesse Jensen. The 3rd District is also worth watching, with incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler is in a rematch against Democrat Carolyn Long.
But the Secretary of State’s race may be the biggest test of the “down-ballot” theory.
Republicans have held the seat for four decades, and Kim Wyman is seeking a third term as one of the highest-ranking Republicans to hold a statewide office on the West Coast.
She beat Seattle politician Gael Tarleton by seven percentage points in the August primary, by winning 35 of 39 counties.
But Tarleton ran up the score in her home King County, winning by 20 percentage points. A record turnout in King County could help her eke out a victory.
“Her biggest obstacle to election is overcoming the Trump factor, and how much of a headwind that is causing for her campaign,” said Scott McClellan, KING 5 political analyst and former Bush White House Press Secretary.
McClellan also believes there won’t be much impact on the gubernatorial race between Gov. Jay Inslee, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Loren Culp.
“I think Inslee is going to have a comfortable margin. But how big a margin? Culp has run an effective campaign, given he is a political newcomer, and not well known, there are a lot independents that are kind of split.”
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