A new Elway poll out this week shows that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Governor Jay Inslee hold double digit leads in Washington State. Although neither one has cracked 50 percent, analysts say indictors, so far, point to a favorable year for statewide Democratic candidates.
“The race for Governor appears frozen,” said pollster Stuart Elway. August’s primary results (Inslee 49 percent to Bryant 38 percent) appeared very similar to Elway’s April survey.
Related: Elway analyzes the primary results
Inslee’s margin of victory earlier this month resulted in large part from a big win in King County.
“King County is always hard for Republicans, so what Bill Bryant and the other statewide Republicans have to do is to really focus on a lot of energy on Snohomish County, Pierce County, Kitsap, because those are the next most populous counties, and then of course Skagit and Whatcom,” explained former Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna, looking at a statewide map of results.
McKenna, who spent two terms as Attorney General before running for governor, lost the race to Inslee in 2012 by less than 100,000 votes.
“I could think of many things I would do differently, and that’s the benefit of experience, but the biggest things were factors largely outside of my control,” reflected McKenna.
McKenna believes his race was lost, in large part, due to high voter turnout in Seattle, driven by major ballot measures that year.
“If I could wave a magic wand, I would have preferred that neither of those ballot measures for same sex marriage or pot were on the ballot,” he said.
This year, Donald Trump’s controversial presidential candidacy remains one of the big factors out of Republican candidates’ control.
After months of dodging the question, Bryant finally took a position on Trump this week, saying he wouldn’t vote for either Trump or Clinton. A campaign spokesman said Bryant hasn’t ruled out Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.
Bryant’s campaign has tried to remain focused on state issues and what he calls leadership failures under Governor Inslee’s first term.
However, Bryant lags far behind Governor Inslee in campaign staff and fundraising totals.
He also failed to crack 40 percent in this month’s primary, several percentage points behind McKenna’s 2012 primary results.
“But then again, I’d run statewide twice before in 2004 and 2008, so it’s not at all surprising that he didn’t have my percentage from 2012,” McKenna noted.
McKenna, who serves as an advisor to Bryant’s campaign, said Bryant, a former Port of Seattle Commissioner, had to spend time and effort introducing himself to Republican voters in the eastern part of the state.
Post primary, McKenna’s said the majority of time and energy will shift west of the Cascades to battleground counties, such as Pierce.
“Pierce County has been trending Republican for quite a while,” said McKenna. “That’s a county that Bill can and should win. Snohomish County is a little bluer than Pierce County but is within striking distance for Bill. He needs to spend time there. There are a lot of independent voters up there and a lot of more conservative Democrats.”
While McKenna also believes Bryant will benefit from a strong set of Republican candidates, down ballot, he believes everything will come down to voter turnout.
“We need Republican voters in Eastern Washington to turnout in higher numbers than they did in 2012. We need them to turnout in greater numbers in places like Pierce County as well,” McKenna told KING 5. “So long as voters in Seattle are better voters that are more likely to vote, it’s a problem. You have to have competitive turnout numbers in order to win.”
