SEATTLE — The Mariners got off to a rocky start in 2024, as a high number of strikeouts and poor performances from normally strong starting pitchers put the team in a hole early.
Now that there is a quarter of the season to review as a sample size, the Mariners are in first place in the American League West, despite strikeouts continuing to plague the lineup.
Forty-one games in, the Mariners are a half-game ahead of the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. Let's examine what has succeeded, what has failed and what the remainder of the season looks like for the M's.
What has gone right for the Mariners so far?
Pitching, pitching and more pitching.
The obvious strength of the Mariners' roster has lived up to the hype in 2024, despite the aforementioned early stumbles.
The Mariners' staff ranks fifth in average runs allowed per game and has the best WHIP, or walks and hits per innings pitched, in baseball. That second number means Seattle is allowing fewer players to have positive outcomes at the plate than any other team in Major League Baseball (MLB).
Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller both rank in the MLB top 10 in WHIP. Fellow young starter George Kirby has the league's second-best walk rate per nine innings.
Luis Castillo, the ace of the Mariners, had four straight losses to open the season. However, Castillo has settled in and now has won four of his last five starts. Castillo has still gone deep into games regularly, as "La Piedra" has pitched the third-most innings of any player in 2024. He also ranks tied for third in MLB with 64 strikeouts.
In the bullpen, closer Andres Munoz and Trent Thornton have been among the league's best at keeping runs off the board. Both have an ERA below 2.50, and the entire bullpen's ERA ranks sixth in MLB at 3.20.
The offense has had fewer positives in 2024, but catcher Cal Raleigh has been the most impactful of the bunch. Raleigh's power is in peak form, as "Big Dumper" ranks fifth in MLB with his 12.1 at-bats per home run so far this season. He is part of a group of just 10 players that have hit double-digit home runs.
Josh Rojas is also hitting .347 in 101 at-bats, as he proves to be a solid piece after being acquired in the Paul Sewald trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks last season.
What has gone wrong for the Mariners so far?
The Mariners were second in MLB in strikeouts in 2023 and clearly made moves this offseason to generate more contact and fewer swings and misses. Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez were jettisoned this offseason after finishing second and third respectively in strikeouts in all of MLB.
After 41 games, the Mariners now actually lead baseball in strikeouts, with 424. No other team has 400. At least when the Mariners were striking out frequently in 2023, the offense ranked 12th in MLB in scoring. This season, the M's rank 24th in runs scored.
The Mariners also have an overall batting average that is well below what it was in 2023. That .223 mark this season ranks 25th in baseball, compared to the M's hitting .242 a season ago.
The worst offender is Jorge Polanco, who was brought over in an offseason trade that cost Seattle four players and cash. Polanco is batting below .200, and his 52 strikeouts are tied for the sixth most in MLB. For a player making over $10 million in 2024 per Spotrac, Polanco is falling well short of expectations.
Julio Rodriguez is another high-earner who is failing to meet benchmarks. After signing the most lucrative contract in team history, Rodriguez was expected to continue his ascent toward superstardom and compete for the league's top individual awards. Instead, Rodriguez has struck out 50 times and hit just two home runs, including his first at T-Mobile Park in 2024 on Sunday.
The former Rookie of the Year and two straight years finishing top-10 in MVP voting put elevated hope on Rodriguez's shoulders in 2024. Still just 23 years old, Rodriguez certainly could turn things around and become the star of the team Seattle needs him to be. Outside of his fielding, however, he has been much closer to an average big-leaguer than an All-Star.
What is next for the Mariners?
Expect the team to make some moves in the coming weeks to address the offensive issues. The team is still in first place, but it is tough to expect absolute dominance from your pitchers day in and day out just to have a chance at winning.
The Mariners' worst month last season was June when the team won just 37.5% of its games. That was followed up by surges in July and August when Seattle won 71.6% of its matchups.
The Mariners have a plethora of strong starting pitchers, and some of the younger ones might be traded before the July 31 deadline to steady the offense. With just a half-game margin in the division lead, every run counts for the Mariners as the season goes on.
