SEATTLE — In the final week of the Major League Baseball (MLB) season, the Mariners still have an ever so slight chance at clinching a berth in the playoffs.
It will take a dominant finish to the regular season schedule and the team getting some help, but it is still possible. FanGraphs puts the team's odds at 2.7% going into Wednesday.
After Tuesday night's loss to the Houston Astros, the Mariners now only can qualify through the Wild Card as Seattle's rivals from Texas clinched the division title. Going into Wednesday's games, here is where the American League Wild Card race stands.
Baltimore Orioles: 87-70
Detroit Tigers: 83-74
Kansas City Royals: 83-74
Minnesota Twins: 81-76
Seattle Mariners: 81-77
MLB's playoff format places the top three teams in the Wild Card standings from each league into the postseason. Essentially, the Mariners must win all of the team's remaining four games and will need some help from the Royals and Twins.
The Mariners will play one more game in Houston against the Astros before finishing up the season with a three-game series against the Oakland Athletics. The Astros have clinched a spot in the playoffs by winning the division and the A's only have pride left to play for, so the Mariners should be the more motivated club in each of its remaining games.
The Royals have five games remaining, with two against the Washington Nationals and then a trio of games against the Atlanta Braves. Washington has been eliminated from the playoffs for some time, but Atlanta is also fighting for its spot in the postseason and sits a half-game out of the Wild Card picture entering Wednesday's games. The Mariners will need the Royals to win no more than one of those final five games while Seattle must win out to overtake them in the standings.
The Twins will finish the season with two games against the Miami Marlins and then round out the 2024 campaign with a three-game series at home against the Baltimore Orioles. Miami is not in playoff contention and Baltimore clinched a berth in the playoffs with a win over the New York Yankees. The Mariners will need a similarly dismal finish for Minnesota as they are wishing for in Kansas City.
Making the odds even longer for the Mariners is the fact that Seattle does not have the tiebreaker over either Kansas City or Minnesota. So the Mariners must finish at least a game above both of those teams in order to qualify for the postseason.
The Mariners have made the playoffs just once since 2001 and likely will remain the sport's only franchise to never appear in a World Series.