SEATTLE — The Seattle Mariners (45-36) have a sizable lead in the American League (AL) West after 81 games, but the fan base isn't exactly giving off the vibes of a first-place team.
As the Mariners reach the halfway point of the season, continued offensive struggles have been overshadowed by regularly impressive pitching. Despite losing five of the last six games, Seattle still holds a 5.5-game lead in the division entering Tuesday's games.
Here are a few observations from the first half of the Mariners' 2024 season, and what fans should be on the lookout for over the final 81 games.
Strikeouts highlight offensive struggles
Only one team in Major League Baseball (MLB) has surpassed the 800-strikeout threshold at this point in the season, and it is indeed the Mariners. In the same number of games, the Mariners have struck out 23 more times than the Oakland Athletics, an organization with a payroll nearly $80 million below Seattle's.
Beyond the strikeouts, the Mariners also have the league's second-worst team batting average at .220 and are one of just six teams averaging under four runs per game. Once again, some of the biggest struggles are coming from the most expensive players on the Mariners' roster.
Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco will earn a combined $21 million in 2024 per Spotrac and neither has a batting average above .200. In fact, Garver and Polanco's expected batting averages -- which remove defense from the equation -- are among the bottom 3% of MLB hitters. Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock were similarly high-earners in 2023 who never managed to make much of an impact beyond the balance sheet.
Mitch Haniger is also earning $16 million and has not delivered much of a punch to the lineup, hitting just .213 while producing negative value in the field, according to advanced metrics from MLB.
Pitching wins games
With the bad news out of the way, there is plenty of good news to look at from the Mariners' pitching staff. The team ranks seventh in MLB in earned run average (ERA) and has allowed the third-fewest hits in MLB. The staff has been led by Logan Gilbert, who leads the league in innings pitched and ranks top 10 in ERA and in walks and hits per inning (WHIP).
The overall strength of the pitching for Seattle has kept the team in a lot of games. Andres Munoz has been very strong once again out of the bullpen, while George Kirby has been mostly good with a dynamite strikeout-to-walk ratio. The margin for victory has been thin despite the strong pitching, as the Mariners' run differential of +16 is the lowest of any division leader and even ranks behind the Houston Astros, who are behind Seattle in the AL West.
Stars below expectations
Luis Castillo and Julio Rodriguez signed huge extensions in recent years and are relied on as the two faces of the franchise. Both players are far from being characterized as playing poorly, but both are also expected to play a whole lot better given the franchise's investment in them.
Rodriguez has been an excellent fielder per usual and is hitting the ball hard, but has not made his projected mark on the basepaths and continues to strike out at a high rate. Castillo has rebounded somewhat from a slow start to the season but hasn't been the clear top-line ace that his contract expects him to be. His ERA and WHIP are also well above levels from the past two seasons.
Teams that win the championship often rely on their stars to deliver. If the Mariners want to finally advance to the franchise's first World Series, players like Rodriguez and Castillo will have to do more.
Strength of schedule
Despite some of the anecdotes above, there is reason for optimism for the second half of the season in Seattle. Only one team, the Los Angeles Angels, has an easier remaining schedule based on opponent winning percentages than the Mariners. LA and Seattle's place on the list demonstrates a surprising trend from the 2024 season: the AL West has not been great. Seattle is the only team in the division with a winning record, as the two Texas teams have significantly underperformed and the Angels and A's continue to be non-competitive.
The Mariners will play most of its remaining games against those struggling division opponents, which should help keep the team from prolonged losing streaks. If the Mariners can even improve the record a bit as the season rolls on, they could secure a bye in the playoffs.
Trade deadline
Given the offensive struggles, the Mariners appear to be the team most suited to make a big move for a bat before the July 31 trade deadline. Just about every big name playing for a losing team has been linked to the Mariners in some capacity, but no serious trade discussions have been reported on Seattle.
A player like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Luis Robert would get fans excited, but the Mariners haven't generally been a big move at the deadline team, though Seattle did get Castillo two years ago at midseason. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has made plenty of moves in his time overseeing the Mariners, and the pressure will be on to ensure this roster is poised to compete come playoff time.
It is hard to imagine the team won't make at least one trade over the next month to solidify the lineup.
