Mariners vs. Astros ALDS preview: Seattle's biggest playoff test looms
The Mariners have a tough task in the Divison Series against the league's best pitching staff.
It all started with a shoe and a prayer Saturday evening.
The Mariners were facing a 8-1 deficit in the sixth inning, with the looming prospect of a do-or-die elimination game in Toronto.
Thousands of miles away, Mariners fans put shoes on their heads in the hopes that this odd ritual would guide its lovable underdogs to another unforgettable victory.
Win probability models gave the Mariners a 1% chance of succeeding at the time.
With shoes on heads, and runners on the base paths, the Mariners scored four runs in the sixth inning, four runs in the eighth inning to tie it at 8-8 and thumped another run in the ninth inning to advance to the American League (AL) Division Series.
The Mariners' 10-9 victory was the biggest road comeback win in playoff history and the largest comeback victory to clinch a postseason series.
And, probably, the only comeback coinciding with fans putting shoes on their heads.
Baseball is a wonderful game sometimes.
Series info
The Mariners were 7-12 against the Astros in the regular season, but they haven't faced each other since July 31.
- Matchup: Houston Astros (106-56) vs. Seattle Mariners (90-72)
- Time: Tuesday (12:37 p.m. PST); Thursday (12:37 p.m.); Saturday (Time TBD); Sunday (if necessary); Monday (if necessary)
- Channel: Game 1 (TBS), Game 2 (TBS), Game 3 (TBS), Game 4 (TBS), Game 5 (TBS)
- Key Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh
- Mariners starting rotation: Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray
- Key Astros: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
- Astros starting rotation: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier
Playoff Mariners defy odds
The Mariners were 29-39 on June 21, which marked the team's lowest point of the season. Since then, Seattle has won 61 of 94 games to close the season. It's the second-best mark in the AL and you will absolutely not love who was ahead of them.
It's the Houston Astros, who went 65-31 over the same stretch and happen to be the Mariners' next opponent in the playoffs.
Both teams happen to be playing their best quality of baseball at the right time, which could mean a high-quality playoff series.
What is going in the Mariners' favor is the human element. Seattle has been playing in high-intensity games with a lot on the line for several weeks. They've made history. They've hit walk-offs to end droughts. They've traveled on the road and won playoff games.
Seattle has a new ace on the staff, a deep bullpen and a rookie that has altered the trajectory of the franchise.
The Astros haven't played a meaningful game in a month. Houston hasn't even faced the Mariners since July. This is a different team, tested under the pressure cooker that is September and October baseball.
Even though Houston was easily the best team in the AL during the regular season, there is enough uncertainty to make this a compelling series.
And in those margins of uncertainty, the Mariners have thrived. We shouldn't doubt them now.
Formidable Astros
You don't outscore teams by 219 runs over a season without a well-balanced effort.
The 106-win Astros were the American League's (AL) best pitching team (518 runs allowed) and the third-most potent offensively (737 runs scored).
Let's start with their pitching.
Justin Verlander, a surefire lock for 2022 Cy Young, has rebounded after missing the entirety of the 2020 and 2021 seasons. And not just rebounded either; there's a legitimate case that this is his best pitching season ever.
The 39-year-old veteran finished the regular season with an 18-4 win-loss record, 1.75 earned run average (ERA), 185 strikeouts and just 29 walks in 175 innings pitched. His ERA led all of baseball, while his wins, winning percentage and hits allowed per nine innings (6.0) was good for the best in the AL.
His ERA+, an advanced metric that adjusts for ballpark and other factors, was an MLB-best 220, meaning he was 120% better than the average starting pitcher.
The nine-time All-Star has never been better in ERA, walks per nine innings and hits allowed. This isn't just a feel-good story of a pitcher coming back from serious injuries to finish his career as a fourth or fifth starter. This is a future Hall of Fame pitcher somehow getting better in his 17th season and reclaiming the starting rotation as his again. The Mariners have to face this flamethrowing version of Verlander at least once in this series.
The rest of the pitching staff is formidable too. Framber Valdez led the AL in innings pitched and complete games. 25-year-old Cristian Javier struck out 194 batters in just 148.2 innings. Setup man Rafael Montero (remember him?) is having the best season of his career. Ryan Pressly is one of the best closers in baseball.
A lineup of power hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena -- each hit over 20 home runs this season -- complement the Astros' league-best pitching staff. Remarkably, the Astros were second in home runs and also had the second-fewest strikeouts. And they have three stolen base threats in Tucker, Altuve and Pena to give them some versatility in the late innings.
The Astros are structured in a way -- dominant pitching and power hitters everywhere -- that makes for the ideal winning formula in 2022.
Series prediction
Astros in 4.
I was wrong last week and also in May and also plenty of times this season.
(You're welcome Mariners fans.)