SEATTLE — Hindsight is a beautiful thing.
Because while using hindsight you can never be wrong. It's what makes being fans much, much easier than the NFL teams trying to make selections in the draft.
Teams will spend months analyzing film, doing interviews, visiting families, and pouring through the growing amount of data just for people like myself to leisurely type on a screen years later, "haha how could you possibly take Mitch Trubiski over Patrick Mahomes????" as if I obviously knew Mahomes was destined to be the best quarterback of all-time back in 2017. (I obviously did. I didn't.)
So, once again, let's use our friend hindsight to grade the last 12 years of Seahawks first-round picks because we can never be wrong when we simply wait for all the information to unfold before analyzing a decision. It's a luxury the Seahawks won't have when they make two first-round selections during Thursday night's 2023 NFL Draft.
For the sake of this exercise, let's assign some parameters to guide the grades and explain a metric that will be a useful tool to compare prospects across positions.
- In this hypothetical, we can only change the Seahawks' first-round pick (when they got it wrong) to a player at the same position. We can't replace a first-round offensive guard with third-round Russell Wilson just to be like "see? I am a draft guru! I know football!"
- We also can't just dip down into the seventh round to unearth the
obviouselite talent that we, arbiters of hindsight, simply knew would be a better player than the first-round pick. The second round is the line, but we will acknowledge players picked in later rounds just for the fun of it. - And, lastly, a quick explanation of Pro Football Reference's approximate value (AV) metric. The AV was designed to give each player a single number to reflect the value the player produced in an individual season (the higher the number means a better season). It's not a perfect end-all-be-all metric, but Pro Football Reference does use it to compare players in each draft class across different positions. It's at least interesting and we'll use it to guide some of our analysis.
Let's get to it!
2022
The Seahawks selection: Charles Cross, offensive tackle
The pick: Ninth overall
Grade the pick: A-. No notes here!
What other players would have been a good selection: The Seahawks nabbed a strong offensive tackle prospect at a premium position in the league. Another offensive tackle, Abraham Lucas, equaled Cross' *wAV of 9 in his rookie season, but he was a third-round selection and, oh yeah, also drafted by the Seattle Seahawks. Not too shabby.
*wAV: similar metric to AV, but it was designed to balance peak performance against raw career totals.
2021
The Seahawks selection: None
2020
The Seahawks pick: Jordyn Brooks, linebacker
The selection: 27th overall
Stats with the Seahawks: 47 games, 39 starts, 402 tackles, Led Seahawks tackles in 2021 and 2022
Grade the pick: B-plus. Brooks is working himself into this generation's leader for the linebacking core, following in Bobby Wagner's footsteps. Given the first three years of his career, Brooks seems capable of holding the burden.
What other players would have been a good selection: Patrick Queen, linebacker. We are splitting hairs here with this nitpick, but Queen has been the more impactful all-around linebacker since he was drafted in 2020.
Unlike Brooks, he's been a full-time starter for the Ravens since day one (Brooks took a few months before claiming his starting role) and he's an asset as a push rusher. His tackle totals don't measure up to Brooks, but he's established himself as a bedrock of the Ravens' defense with 10 sacks and three interceptions in his career to date - emblematic of his all-around utility.
Queen was taken with the 28th pick in the 2020 first round, one pick after the Seahawks selected Brooks. The Ravens linebacker's 26 wAV makes him a top 10 player in his rookie class and one of the better defensive prospects in what was an absolutely loaded draft. (Note: This was the draft that had Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, Joe Burrow, CeeDee Lamb AND Jonathan Taylor. My goodness.)
Queen's production so far is only third behind Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn (30 wAV) and Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs (27 wAV) for defensive prospects in the 2020 class.
2019
The Seahawks pick: L.J. Collier, defensive end
The selection: 29th overall
Stats with the Seahawks: 45 games, 16 starts, 3 sacks, 40 tackles
Grade the pick: F. Collier was the fifth defensive end selected in his class, which included Pro-Bowlers in Nick Bosa (2nd overall), Brian Burns (16th overall) and Maxx Crosby (106th overall). Collier's three sacks in four seasons do not equate to a first-round-caliber defensive end. He hasn't been a starter for the Seahawks in three of his four NFL seasons either.
What other players would have been a good selection: Zach Allen (65th overall) and Maxx Crosby (106th overall). The Crosby one is cheating, admittedly, because the rest of the NFL didn't think he was worth a first-round pick either. Allen was the next defensive end taken after Collier... 36 picks later. In hindsight, you could view this gap as a red herring because it indicates what the NFL believed was a big tier drop in talent level. Perhaps Collier's selection was helped by his status as the last first-round caliber defensive end in his class.
After four seasons, and just one season as a full-time starter, Collier signed with the division-rival Arizona Cardinals in the 2023 offseason.
2018
The Seahawks pick: Rashaad Penny, running back
The selection: 27th overall
Stats with the Seahawks: 42 games, 11 starts, 1,918 rushing yards, 5.7 yards per carry, 222 receiving yards, 24 total touchdowns
Grade the pick: C. While Penny has been on the field, he's flashed the talent that made him the second running back selected in his draft class behind Saquon Barkley (2nd overall). The problem, as everyone is painfully aware, is that the San Diego State product has missed significant time with injuries in the 2020 and 2022 seasons. Penny's serious injury includes a torn ACL in 2019 and a tibia fracture in 2022, but he's also missed time with a knee strain, hamstring strain, another knee strain, leg calf strain and another hamstring injury according to Draft Sharks. His on-field availability is what prevents his rating from being higher.
What other players would have been a good selection: Sony Michel (31st overall) and Nick Chubb (35th overall). Penny's injury history stings even more when you see the Browns selected Chubb, the draft class' best running back to date, just eight picks afterward. While Penny has been sidelined, Chubb has totaled 6,341 rushing yards and 48 rushing touchdowns in five seasons and claimed the unofficial title as the NFL's best "pure rusher."
Chase Edmonds (134th overall) and Nyheim Hines (104th overall) have had better injury luck, and thus have produced more than Penny in their careers, but I don't think the Seahawks are kicking themselves over missing out on those prospects.
2017
The Seahawks pick: None
2016
The Seahawks pick: Germain Ifedi, offensive guard
The Seahawks selection: 31st overall
Stats with the Seahawks: 60 games, 60 starts, 31 wAV (third among guards in 2016)
Grade the pick: C. Ifedi was a dependable right tackle for the Seahawks that started 60 of a possible 64 games before he moved on to the Bears and Falcons. Right tackle isn't quite the premium that left tackle is on the open market, but Seattle can say they grabbed average production for four seasons before Ifedi left in free agency, which is something at 31st overall.
What other players would have been a good selection: Joe Thuney (78th overall) and Cody Whitehair (56th overall). Thuney signed a five-year, $80 million contract in 2021 to bolster the Chiefs' struggling offensive line and rewarded Kansas City with an All-Pro season in 2022. Thuney is in line to be an important part of a unit that protects the NFL's best quarterback for years to come.
Whitehair has played his entire career in Chicago, barely missing a start in seven seasons. He was named to the 2018 Pro Bowl team as a center.
2015
The Seahawks pick: None
2014
The Seahawks pick: None
2013
The Seahawks pick: None
2012
The Seahawks pick: Bruce Irvin, defensive end
The selection: 15th overall
Stats with the Seahawks: 71 games, 49 starts, 25.5 sacks, 166 tackles, 3 interceptions
Grade the pick: C-minus. Irvin's raw output (nearly 26 sacks in four seasons, three seasons as a full-time starter) as a Seahawk are certainly passable, but the pick is worse when you consider the context. Irvin was the first defensive end selected in his draft class, but four other of his peers have outpaced his production.
What other players would have been a better selection: Melvin Ingram (18th overall), Chandler Jones (21st overall), Whitney Mercikus (26th overall). Three better defensive end options happened to follow Irvin in his class. It's an even tougher beat for the Seahawks the team didn't have a first-round pick in 2013, 2014 and 2015.
2011
The Seahawks pick: James Carpenter, offensive tackle
The selection: 25th overall
Stats with the Seahawks: 45 games, 39 starts, 17 draft value (8th among tackles in 2011)
Grade the pick: C.
What other players would have been a good selection: No one, oddly enough. If we are going to stick to the rigidity of this exercise and only look at potential offense tackles the Seahawks passed on at 25th overall, Carpenter ended up being the fourth most productive tackle in his class. The three better offensive tackles (Tyron Smith, Nate Solder and Anthony Castonzo) were selected higher in the draft than Carpenter, so the Seahawks didn't have a chance to grab anyone better at 25th overall. Carpenter's big knock was that he lasted just four seasons with Seattle, but he did rebound with six consecutive seasons as a reliable starter for the New York Jets.
If we allow the Seahawks to take another position outside of offensive tackler, defensive end Cameron Heyward is the obvious choice at 25th overall. He was selected six picks after Carpenter by the Steelers at 31st overall.
2010
The picks: Russell Okung, offensive tackle, and Earl Thomas, safety
The selection: Sixth and 14th overall
Grade the Okung and Thomas picks: A-plus-plus-plus. Okung solidified the left side of the Seahawks' offensive line for six years when the team reached its apex as a Super Bowl contender. The 6th overall pick was named to a Pro Bowl team in 2012, but Thomas was the real gem in a Seahawks draft that proved to be transformative for the franchise. Thomas was either a Pro Bowler, an All-Pro or a Defensive Player of the Year finalist for five consecutive seasons.
(Seattle added Golden Tate and Kam Chancellor in the 2012 draft, building the foundation for the Seahawks to be a Super Bowl contender every season).
What other players would have been a good selection: Roger Saffold (33rd overall). There's a case to be made that Saffold would have been the better pick than Okung, given that he's still in the league and thriving. The 34-year-old was named to his first Pro Bowl teams in 2021 and 2022, while Okung hasn't played in the NFL since 2020. Okung, however, had a much better start to his career - when the Seahawks needed him most.
Seattle couldn't have possibly done any better than Thomas at 14th overall.