The United States women's national team heads into its final World Cup group stage game on Tuesday in the top spot, but still facing the threat of elimination.
Team USA's final group stage game will be at midnight on Tuesday against Portugal, which scored two goals to beat Vietnam 2-0 in its second game. That result pushed Portugal third in Group E and made the team a threat to advance to the knockout stages.
The Netherlands' final match against Vietnam will also be played at midnight PST on Tuesday to ensure none of the countries in Group E can tactically rest players because they know the results ahead of time.
Through two games here's how the Group E standings shake out.
- United States: 4 points (1 win and 1 draw)
- Netherlands: 4 points (1 win and 1 draw)
- Portugal: 3 points (1 win and 1 loss)
- Vietnam: 0 points (2 losses)
As a reminder, countries earn three points for a win, one point for a draw and zero points for a loss in the World Cup. The top two teams in points in each World Cup group advance to the knockout stages of the tournament, which will feature 16 countries in a single-elimination format. (Good news for people that don't like 0-0 draws: No ties are allowed after this point.)
I missed the first two World Cup matches. How did the USA do?
Team USA dominated in its opening game, scoring three goals in a 3-0 victory against Vietnam on July 21. Sophia Smith's two goals were in the first half.
The second game was a bit more precarious. In a rematch of the 2019 World Cup Final, the United States women were trailing for most of the game after Netherlands' Jill Roord scored a goal in the 19th minute. The Americans tied the match at 1-1 in the 62nd minute and held on for a draw.
OK. So what does the USA need to do in its final game to qualify for the next round?
The United States can advance to the knockout stages with a win or draw. That's all it takes.
But things get more interesting if...
Can Team USA be eliminated in the group stage?
Actually, yes. Despite being No. 1 ranked in the world, the Americans do face the possibility of an unthinkable elimination.
If the United States loses to Portugal AND Vietnam upsets the Netherlands, the Americans will finish third in Group E and be eliminated from the tournament.
The two results on their own seem unlikely and they have to happen at the same time for the Americans to be ousted from the 2023 World Cup.
Enough doom and gloom. Can the United States still win Group E?
Yes. That's still the likeliest outcome here.
A win over Portugal *almost* guarantees Team USA to win the group. (Asterisk alert: If the Netherlands outscore Vietnam by two more goals than the United States outscored Portugal, then the Americans would not win the group. For example: Team USA beats Portugal 1-0, but the Netherlands beats Vietnam, 4-0. This is because the second tiebreaker in the World Cup is goal differential, which would favor the Netherlands in this scenario.)
The United States can still win Group E if they draw, too. That would require the Netherlands to draw or lose to Vietnam.
If USA advances, who would they face in the next round of the World Cup?
We won't know the United States' opponent until early Wednesday morning when Group F finishes its matches.
The three likely opponents for the American women are France, Jamaica and Brazil.
As of right now, the United States would draw Jamaica, second in Group F, in the knockout stages. But Group F is far from decided, with France (4 points), Jamaica (4 points) and Brazil (3 points) all in contention for the two advancing spots in the tournament.
Switzerland, Norway, Australia, Nigeria, Japan and Spain have already clinched their spot in the knockout rounds of the World Cup. There are still 10 spots up for grabs.
