SEATTLE — A new map released by the United States Geological Survey shows the likelihood of an earthquake causing damaging shaking in the next century.
"The area around Puget Sound is really a bullseye of seismic hazard - really for the Pacific Northwest," said Harold Tobin with the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. "Second only to California really. We have high numbers of people at risk of earthquakes in our areas."
Tobin has spent decades working to understand subduction zone earthquakes. He said this map tracks with past research, but includes updated information using new tools and the "latest and greatest" data from hundreds of scientists.
"The hazard has gone up a bit in the estimation of the USGS because we know more about that seismic wave propagation," Tobin said. "That really comes from computer models and simulations, and it's ground-truthed to the smaller earthquakes, where we can scale up what's going to happen when a big one takes place."
The map shows a high chance of an earthquake strong enough to cause damaging shaking in the next 100 years, but Tobin said it's impossible to say whether that would be in 20, 50 or 75 years, as earthquakes cannot be predicted or prevented - just prepared for.
"Preparing means fixing the buildings and bridges and other infrastructure that we know is vulnerable and at risk," Tobin said. "Unreinforced masonry, old brick buildings that aren't reinforced, that's a low hanging fruit that needs to be done. There's also a lot of concrete structures that aren't how we'd build them today."
While Tobin said it is likely that western Washington could see big earthquakes, people should not panic or despair. He does suggest people assess the seismic safety of their own homes, pack an emergency kit, and if they're in a more remote area especially, make sure they are prepared to weather two weeks with food and water, in case of a disaster.
"Most people will come through a big earthquake and there are things you can do to prepare for that; prepare don't despair is my mantra," Tobin said. "For this region, even in the worst earthquakes in the world, there were people in places that do better than others and even when damage is large it's not like it takes everyone's life."