SEATTLE — Seattle is officially wrapping up the end of this year’s El Niño season with conditions expected to transition to neutral in the next month.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued its latest discussion on El Niño/Southern Oscillation on May 9, reporting there was a 69% chance of La Niña developing between July and September.
El Niño and La Niña are weather patterns associated with above and below-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, respectively. El Niño is typically correlated with warmer, drier weather during winter in the Pacific Northwest, while La Niña brings higher chances of cold, wet weather.
In April, sea surface temperatures remained above average for most parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean with temperatures ranging from 0.5 degrees Celsius to 0.8 degrees Celsius above average in three regions.
However, below-average sea surface temperatures did emerge in small regions in the eastern Pacific, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Model guidance shows La Niña could develop as early as June to August. NOAA said in a blog post it has seen a “quick switch” from El Niño to La Niña several times, especially after a strong El Niño, like this last winter.
La Niña winters generally follow El Niño ones, which strengthens scientists’ confidence that the La Niña pattern will continue this fall and winter.
Although La Niña could develop this summer, it isn’t expected to have an impact on weather in the Pacific Northwest until several months later. La Niña and El Niño only impact winter weather, typically beginning in mid-December.
This last winter was one of the strongest El Niños on record. Some Washington ski resorts, like the Summit at Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass Ski Resort, saw the lowest amount of snow received in 10 years.
KING 5's Conner Board contributed to this report.
