SEATTLE — The Farmers’ Almanac has just come out with its annual winter season weather forecast.
The overall theme is cooler and wetter. For the Pacific Northwest specifically, “chilly with normal precipitation”.
The thing that bothers meteorologists about the Farmers’ Almanac forecast is that the developers don’t share how they make the forecast. According to their website, they use an “exclusive mathematical and astronomical formula… that relies on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position, and many other factors.” That secrecy is a problem.
The Farmers’ Almanac forecast for last winter predicted “typical winter temps” and “wet” for the Pacific Northwest.
But last winter, temperatures were anything but “typical”. According to weather records at Sea-Tac, it was one of the warmest Januarys ever, followed by one of the coldest Februarys ever.
So, the Almanac forecast could not have been more wrong.
I’ll be the first to admit that true climate scientists are not always right. But at least their forecast is based on actual peer-reviewed science.
Here is the actual forecast for winter from the Climate Prediction Center, December through February. It shows a more realistic view of the trends that long-range forecast models are hinting at.
For the Pacific Northwest, warmer than average temperatures.
The truth is, forecasting the future is hard, especially when it comes to forecasting months in advance. And when the Farmers’ Almanac first came out in the 1800s, it was the only source of information that people relied on. Nowadays, science has caught up, and the Farmers’ Almanac forecast should be taken as mostly entertainment.